這篇登在The National Interest國家利益雜誌的文章【在為時已晚前，讓台灣獲「國際承認」！】，副標題是：【配合中共的語言遊戲，只會讓中共更有膽子去執行最終的解決方案：藉由暴力實現其經常宣揚的「統一民族」的堅定意圖。】

作者Eugene John Gregory是美國西點軍校中校教授，Lillian Li-Hsing Ho（何立行）是助理教授。

作者以美國軍方的視角（雖然最後強調代表個人看法），分析台灣問題在中國牽制下，可能的台灣地位矛盾。

以下節錄的部分，有頗為務實的建議，但因為還是很長，所以幫大家整理四個重點：

1. 正式承認台灣為「中國ROC」，其價值遠低於「非正式（但強烈）的承認台灣為台灣」！

2. 只要一些國家仍然承認中華民國ROC（台灣）是「中國」，這種台灣代表中國的論述持續存在的話，實際上反而支持中共所謂「台灣是中國一部分」的虛假架構。

3. 藉由承認模式的轉換，台灣將立即從少數幾個小國在法律上"承認"為中國，跳到在地球上所有最重要的國家都以「非正式台北模式」事實上承認為台灣（或至少是「台北」）。

4. 立陶宛的「台灣代表處」模式，雖然會招致更多中共的謾駡，但卻可能指引出一種當前國際承認台灣最穩定且最適當的模式，用一種更貼近真實的方式，來談論一個自由的民族。

～～～

如果將是否承認台灣的存在性轉由國際法的角度來切入，那麼「怎樣算被承認」，以及「如何被承認」則是關鍵。換句話說，就事實的充分度與國家實踐的角度來看，正式承認台灣為「中國」－－根據國際法長遠來看－－其價值遠低於「非正式（但強烈）的承認台灣為台灣」！

To the extent Taiwan’s existence turns on the international law aspect of recognition, it is key what is being recognized and how it is being recognized. In other words, formal recognition of Taiwan as “China,” from a factual sufficiency and state practice standpoint, may be far less valuable under international law in the long term than “informally [but robustly] recognizing Taiwan as Taiwan.”

每當像尼加拉瓜這樣的國家從正式承認台灣「轉換」到正式承認中國時，我們就更加確定「國際上穩定且持續的承認台灣就是台灣」是絕對必要的一步。自由民主台灣的朋友擔心這種「轉換」會進一步讓台灣在國際上被孤立，但只要世界上主要的自由民主列強繼續實務上視台灣為一個獨立國家，而且的確大多是這樣做的，這種對孤立的恐懼大概都是被誇大了。

Whenever a state, such as Nicaragua, “switches” (language that invokes the Taiwan-as-the-only-China discourse model) “formal recognition” from Taiwan to China, we believe it is another necessary step in the establishment of a stable, sustainable discourse of international recognition of Taiwan as Taiwan. Friends of liberal-democratic Taiwan fear such “switching” further isolates Taiwan internationally, but as long as the major liberal-democratic powers of the world continue to de facto treat Taiwan as an independent country, which they mostly do, that fear of isolation is probably overblown.

相反的，只要一些國家仍然承認中華民國（台灣）是「中國」，這種台灣代表中國的論述持續存在的話，實際上反而支持中共所謂「台灣是中國一部分」的虛假架構。

To the contrary, as long as some states still recognize the ROC (Taiwan) as “China,” the continued existence of this Taiwan-as-China discourse actually works to affirm the CCP’s fiction that Taiwan is part of China.

當一個人走進台灣外交部（MOFA）的大廳時，迎接他的是所有「正式承認台灣」的國家的國旗，即承認中華民國（台灣）為「唯一的中國」的國旗。但如果MOFA自豪地展示美國、日本、歐盟、以及所有其他在「非正式台北模式」下承認台灣的重要國家的旗幟不是更好嗎！

When one walks into the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) lobby in Taipei, one is greeted with the flags of all the countries that “formally recognize Taiwan,” i.e., that recognize the ROC (Taiwan) as the “only China.” It would be better if MOFA proudly displayed the flags of the United States, Japan, the European Union, and all of the other consequential nations that recognize Taiwan under the “informal Taipei model.”

藉由承認模式的轉換，台灣將立即從少數幾個小國在法律上"承認"為中國，跳到在地球上所有最重要的國家都以「非正式台北模式」事實上承認為台灣（或至少是「台北」），這種模式將更加穩定，因為它才更接近現實。此外，它也支持但不強求台灣改變對自已憲法上的法律理解。

By switching recognition models, Taiwan would immediately go from being de jure “recognized” as China by a few smaller states to being de facto recognized as Taiwan (or at least “Taipei”) under the “informal Taipei model” by all of the most consequential states on Earth, and this model would be more discursively stable because it is closer to reality. Moreover, it would support but not require domestic changes in Taiwan’s de jure constitutional understanding of itself.

儘管在中共的壓力下出現一些倒退，但在2021年12月，立陶宛－－這個波羅的海國家和北約成員國－－非常了解在共產主義專制下生存，它向世界提出了一個更加真實的承認台灣的模式：允許台灣將其在立陶宛的代表處命名為「台灣代表處」，而非「台北代表處」。不出所料，中國在經濟和外交上試圖全面傷害立陶宛：限制進口、並脅迫歐盟在經濟上孤立立陶宛（尚未成功），中國甚至驅逐了立陶宛的代表，甚至加大了一系列不加掩飾的罐頭威脅。承認它是「台灣」代表處而不是「台北」的現實，使論述模式更接近客觀上的現實。每個自由民主國家都可以效仿，而台灣（從自己的外交部開始）應該認識到，這種模式真的更能反映現實。

Despite some backtracking under CCP pressure, in December 2021, Lithuania, a small Baltic nation and NATO member that knows well what it was like to live under Communist autocracy, introduced to the world an even more substantively truthful model for recognizing Taiwan: allowing Taiwan to name its representative office in Lithuania the “Taiwan Representative Office” instead of the “Taipei Representative Office.” Predictably, the PRC engaged in a full-out attempt to hurt Lithuania economically and diplomatically, curtailing imports and (so far unsuccessfully) bullying the European Union to isolate Lithuania economically. The PRC went so far as expelling Lithuania’s representatives and even upped its usual slew of thinly veiled threats. Acknowledging the reality that it is the representative office of Taiwan (which it clearly is) instead of “Taipei” brings the discursive model much closer to objective reality. Every liberal democracy could follow suit, and Taiwan (starting with its own Ministry of Foreign Affairs) should recognize that this model is a better reflection of reality.

人們不應該錯誤地認為，調整我們對於台灣的承認－－承認台灣是獨立的台灣，即使我們沒有明確地表示它是否為獨立的國家－－更接近現實的論述是「對抗」或「挑釁」中共。就像普丁一樣，中共長期以來一直在中國國內和世界舞臺上以驚人的規模做虛偽的事。此外，由於中國強力壓制境內聰明的思想家，並且長期禁止自由言論，今天的中國社會幾乎沒有任何機制來自我矯正內部的論述。跟著中共起舞去競爭論述的話語權只會鼓勵它執行最終的解決方案，也就是它經常聲明的藉由暴力「統一民族」的堅定意志。

One should not mistake thinking that aligning our language of recognition—recognizing Taiwan as independent Taiwan even if we don’t explicitly take a position on whether it is an independent state—closer to reality will “antagonize” or “provoke” the CCP. Just like Putin, the CCP has been engaging in mendacious behavior on a breathtaking scale for a long time, both domestically in China and on the world stage. Moreover, because China actively suppresses its brightest thinkers and long ago outlawed free speech, Chinese society today has very few mechanisms to self-correct the narrative internally. Playing along with the CCP’s linguistic games will only embolden it to carry out its final solution to carry out its oft-stated fixed intention to unite the “race” through violence.

有鑑於此，立陶宛的「台灣代表處」模式－－雖然會招致更多中共的謾駡－－或許架構出當前國際承認台灣最穩定且最適當的論述模式。再一次，就像烏克蘭出乎意料之外的已經成為西方道德勇氣的教訓一樣，立陶宛－－另一個前蘇聯國家－－正指引出一道更真實的方式來談論一個自由的民族。所有尊重真理、關心台灣作為自由民主國家的國家，都應該立即效仿！我們需要停止玩中國的語言遊戲，因為這些遊戲的背後是兇惡的意圖，而假裝這件事不存在是沒有任何好處的！台灣和自由世界需要開始真誠地討論國際如何承認台灣，以免為時已晚！

Given all this, the Lithuanian “Taiwan representative office” model—which stops just short of recognizing Taiwan as an independent, sovereign nation, although it would invite more CCP invective—likely constitutes the most stable and appropriate discursive model for international recognition of Taiwan at the given moment. Once again, just like Ukraine has become an unexpected lesson in moral courage for the West, Lithuania—another post-Soviet state—is pointing towards a more truthful way to talk about a free people. All states that have due regard for the truth and care about Taiwan as a fellow liberal democracy should immediately follow suit. We need to stop playing China’s linguistic games because behind those games is murderous intent, and it does no good to pretend it is otherwise. Taiwan and the rest of the free world need to start talking truthfully about international recognition of Taiwan before it is too late.